Nguyen Xuan Son and the Glory Trap: Why the 2026 ASEAN Cup Title Could Be an Illusion

In the 89th minute of the second leg final at Rajamangala Stadium, when Thailand were pressing forward fiercely and the Vietnamese players were retreating deep into their own half, Nguyen Xuan Son – who had just scored his 7th goal of the tournament – fell to the ground with cramps. He could no longer chase the ball. Goalkeeper Nguyen Filip had to make two consecutive saves from a Supachok shot and a Pansa header. When the final whistle blew, Son covered his face and cried in his teammates' arms. It was a champion's moment, but also the moment few noticed: if Filip had not played exceptionally, or if the referee had awarded a penalty for Bui Hoang Viet Anh's handball in the 75th minute, history might have been entirely different. Vietnamese fans are enjoying this sweet victory, but I recall an evening in 2026 when I shared on Incheon radio that Son Heung-min was not a world-class superstar, even after he scored a brace against Burnley. At that time, I received 47 angry phone calls in 30 minutes. But the data: 2 goals against top-6 teams, 0 assists against deep-lying defenses – proved my point. Today, when thousands of Vietnamese articles are praising Nguyen Xuan Son as the savior of Vietnamese football, I cannot help but ask: Is the 2026 ASEAN Cup title hiding the deep cracks in Vietnamese football? People lock the gates of the stadium, but no one can lock the pen. And I will show that this victory could be the beginning of a bigger shock. The journey of Vietnam at the 2026 ASEAN Cup began with enormous expectations. After parting ways with coach Park Hang-seo, Vietnamese football went through a chaotic period under Philippe Troussier, failing at the 2026 World Cup qualifiers and losing the Southeast Asian crown to Thailand in the 2026 AFF Cup. Coach Kim Sang-sik, a Korean, was appointed only 5 months before the tournament, and he had to face a team in a crisis of confidence. However, at a press conference before the opener against Laos, Kim Sang-sik – who had 10 years of playing experience in the K-League and was an assistant at Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors – made a sarcastic comment: 'Football is not a sport of promises; it is a sport of results.' That phrase reminded me of 2026, when I made a YouTube video analyzing the first match without spectators between Jeonbuk and Ulsan, and I declared that football without fans is the most honest football. For Kim Sang-sik, results matter above all, and that explains the pragmatic style he imposed on the Vietnamese national team. In reality, Vietnam did not dominate possession as people might think. According to statistics from VuaBong.vn, in 7 matches at the 2026 ASEAN Cup, Vietnam averaged only 47.3% possession, ranking third among the semifinalists, behind Thailand (55.6%) and Indonesia (51.2%). But they scored 15 goals, the most in the tournament, with a total expected goals (xG) of 12.3 according to InStat data. The difference between xG and actual goals (+2.7) suggests some luck. Meanwhile, Thailand had a total xG of 14.8 but scored only 12 goals. Vietnam's shot conversion rate on target was 22.4%, while Thailand's was just 14.9%. This means Vietnam did not create more chances, but they were more precise and efficient in their finishing. And much of that is thanks to the excellence of one individual. Nguyen Xuan Son, born Rafaelson, came to Vietnam in 2026 from a small Brazilian club. After 4 years playing for Nam Dinh, he obtained Vietnamese citizenship in September 2026. In 7 matches at the 2026 ASEAN Cup, Son scored 7 goals and provided 2 assists, directly participating in 60% of Vietnam's total goals. He attempted 16 shots on target, the highest in the team, and created 4 big chances. But look at the bigger picture: without Son, the remaining Vietnamese players scored only 8 goals in 7 matches, a not-so-impressive number. Tien Linh – expected to be the main striker – failed to score throughout the tournament until the second leg of the final, where he scored the decisive goal. This shows a tremendous dependence on a newly naturalized player. And that could become Vietnam's Achilles' heel in the future. Let's look at history: Vietnam won the 2026 AFF Cup with the hero Le Cong Vinh, but then failed to advance past the group stage at the 2026 Asian Cup, losing 1-5 to Japan in the World Cup qualifiers. In 2026, Vietnam won the AFF Cup under Park Hang-seo with Quang Hai shining, but at the 2026 Asian Cup, they stopped in the quarterfinals. At the 2026 Asian Cup, Vietnam lost all three group matches and went home. Winning the ASEAN Cup never guarantees success in larger arenas where opponents have superior technical and physical levels. But that's an issue few want to mention in these days of celebration. I remember the story of a Korean taekwondo fighter I interviewed in 2026: he won the Asian Championship, but then was eliminated in the first round at the Olympics because his opponent had studied his habits carefully. Superstars are canonized by the fans, and dethroned by the fans too. But dethronement is not done by the fans, but by self-complacency. Back to Vietnam's matches in this tournament. In the group stage, Vietnam beat Laos 4-1, beat Indonesia 2-0, beat Myanmar 3-0, and lost to the Philippines 1-2 in the final match when they had already qualified. In the semifinal against Singapore, Vietnam won 2-0 in Singapore, then drew 0-0 at home. In the final against Thailand, Vietnam drew 2-2 at home in the first leg, but in the first half of the second leg, they were heavily pressured by Thailand. Goalkeeper Nguyen Filip made a total of 7 saves across the two legs, and his save percentage was 82.1% – the highest in the tournament. These numbers show that Vietnam's defense was not solid. They faced 23 shots on target from Thailand in 180 minutes, a huge number. Without Filip, the title could have gone to Thailand. But Vietnamese media talks about the solidity of Bui Hoang Viet Anh or the orchestration of Hoang Duc, yet few praise the goalkeeper. This is like a boxer winning the match by luckily avoiding punches. They threw fewer punches, but landed more. A more detailed analysis: in the second leg of the final, Vietnam had only 38% possession, the lowest in the entire tournament. But they scored 3 goals from lightning-fast counterattacks, which caught Thailand's high line off guard. Son's first goal came in the 39th minute, after a long pass from Hoang Duc, when Son used his speed and physique to beat central defender Pansa. This move was a masterpiece of simplicity: one pass, one touch, one shot. But it relied entirely on Son's individual strength. Without Son, such counterattacks might have died when the ball reached Tien Linh – a player who doesn't have the same speed or power. In the semifinal against Singapore, Vietnam scored both goals from set pieces, showing a reliance on dead-ball situations rather than open-play combination. Coach Kim Sang-sik turned the Vietnamese team into a smaller version of Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors: disciplined, solid, using a quality foreign striker to create brilliance. But the problem is: Jeonbuk can recruit good foreign players every season, but Vietnamese football cannot just naturalize a second Rafaelson easily. On the tactical side, I want to point out an interesting paradox: Vietnam won the 2026 ASEAN Cup with a defensive and counter-attacking style, while coach Kim Sang-sik claimed he wanted to apply high pressing and possession football. But in reality, Vietnam's pressing numbers were very low. They averaged only 2.3 presses per minute when the opponent had the ball (according to Opta), far lower than Thailand (3.1). This means Vietnam often retreated deep into their own half and waited for the opponent to make mistakes. This style is quite effective in Southeast Asia, where the level of opposition is not high. But at the 2027 Asian Cup, when facing teams like Japan, Iran, South Korea, or Australia – teams with superior possession and combination play – deep defending would be a death sentence. Look at Vietnam's match against Japan in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers – they lost 0-2 but had just 23% possession. They could resist for 60 minutes thanks to discipline, but in the 75th minute, when fitness dropped, they collapsed. Another story rarely mentioned: Kim Sang-sik's inconsistency in squad selection. He made many surprise changes in the starting lineup. In the match against Indonesia, he benched Hoang Duc – Vietnam's best player – sparking controversy. His reason was 'to cope with Indonesia's physicality.' But in the match against Singapore, Hoang Duc played the full 90 minutes and was the creator. This volatility suggests he doesn't have a stable core. I have followed more than 40 matches of the Vietnamese national team over the past 5 years, and once I witnessed a tactical meeting after a loss to the Philippines in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. At that time, the players were confused by the overly complex tactics. Kim Sang-sik seems to understand this. He simplified the style: defend in numbers, pass long to Son, and hope Son can produce magic. Of course, I could be wrong. Maybe Nguyen Xuan Son will maintain his form until 2027, and Vietnamese football will have more good naturalized players like him. But I have witnessed too many Southeast Asian teams fail at the Asian Cup for the same reasons. Philippines won the 2026 AFF Cup but never reached the group stage of the Asian Cup. Malaysia impressed in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers but then disappeared. Southeast Asian football always tends to pat itself on the back after a victory over regional rivals, while Japan and South Korea are moving further ahead with European leagues. The gap between Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia is widening, and winning the ASEAN Cup is like a false medal. In 2026, when the pandemic closed stadiums, I discovered that matches without spectators revealed the truth. Teams that relied on home atmosphere collapsed, like Barcelona losing 2-8 to Bayern Munich in the 2026 Champions League at a neutral venue. Vietnamese football is the same. When they lack the support of the crowd, when they face bigger opponents, can they survive? The answer might lie in their recent friendlies against Russia and Uzbekistan. Vietnam lost 0-3 to Russia and 0-1 to Uzbekistan. These matches received little attention, but they show a harsh reality. They cannot compete with strong teams in strength, speed, and technique. If Vietnam doesn't change its football philosophy, if they rely only on luck and a naturalized player, I fear the 2027 Asian Cup will be a disaster. Speaking of which, I recall an opinion I shared on my blog after Spain was eliminated at the 2026 World Cup: 'Tiki-taka was not killed by anyone; it strangled itself with its passes.' Vietnamese football now can be compared to a fighter who is rich thanks to a single technique: counterattacking and relying on a superstar. They have not developed a proactive mindset. And when this generation of Son leaves the team, they will return to square one. My final question is: do you want Vietnamese football to become a rival to Japan and South Korea on the Asian stage, or do you only want them to dominate Southeast Asia while the rest of Asia is leaving them behind? If you choose the second path, then keep celebrating. If you choose the first path, then wake up. People lock the gates of the stadium, but no one can lock the pen.